6 januari 2013: Från Bric till Mint

Vilka blir de ekonomiska dragloken de närmaste åren - alltså fram till 2050?
   Kring 2000 var det Bric-länderna som pekades ut, Brasilien, Ryssland, Indien, China.

   Intressant - och så blev det, delvis.

   Varför? På grund av befolkningsutveckling och ekonomiska (frigörande) reformer, i marknadsekonomisk riktning.

  Men vad sker då efter 2013?

  Om det har i dag Jim O´Neill, BBC, skrivit en intressant artikel.

  Fyra nya länder pekas ut, Mint-länderna: Mexiko, Indonesien, Nigeria och Turkiet.

  Här huvuddelen av artikeln:

   

The Mint countries: Next economic giants?

Building an Ikea for the 28 million people living in greater Jakarta

In 2001 the world began talking about the Bric countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China - as potential powerhouses of the world economy. The term was coined by economist Jim O'Neill, who has now identified the "Mint" countries - Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - as emerging economic giants.
  Here he explains why.

So what is it about the so-called Mint countries that makes them so special?
   Why these four countries?
   A friend who has followed the Bric story noted sardonically that they are probably "fresher" than the Brics. What they really share beyond having a lot of people, is that at least for the next 20 years, they have really good "inner" demographics - they are all going to see a rise in the number of people eligible to work relative to those not working.
   This is the envy of many developed countries but also two of the Bric countries, China and Russia.
  So, if Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey get their act together, some of them could match China's style double-digit rates between 2003 and 2008.

Something else three of them share, which Mexican Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Meade Kuribrena pointed out to me, is that they all have geographical positions that should be an advantage as patterns of world trade change.

For example, Mexico is next door to the US, but also Latin America.
   Indonesia is in the heart of South-east Asia but also has deep connections with China.

   And as we all know, Turkey is in both the West and East.
   Nigeria is not really similar in this regard for now, partly because of Africa's lack of development, but it could be in the future if African countries stop fighting and choose to trade with each other.
   This might in fact be the basis for the Mint countries developing their own economic-political club just as the Bric countries did - one of the biggest surprises of the whole Bric thing for me.
  I can smell the possibility of a Mint club already.

What I also realised after talking to Meade Kuribrena, is that the creation of the Mint acronym could spur pressure for Nigeria to become a member of the G20, as the other Mints already are.
    Thhis was something the charismatic Nigerian finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was keen to talk about: "We know our time will come," she said. "We think they are missing something by not having us."

Meade Kuribrena went so far as to suggest that, as a group of four countries, the Mints have more in common than the Brics. I am not sure about that, but it is an interesting idea.

Economically three of them - Mexico, Indonesia and Nigeria - are commodity producers and only Turkey isn't. This contrasts with the Bric countries where two - Brazil and Russia - are commodity producers and the other two - China and India - aren't.

In terms of wealth, Mexico and Turkey are at about the same level, earning annually about $10,000 (£6,100) per head. This compares with $3,500 (£2,100) per head in Indonesia and $1,500 (£900) per head in Nigeria, which is on a par with India. They are a bit behind Russia - $14,000 (£8,500) per head - and Brazil on $11,300 (£6,800), but still a bit ahead of China - $6,000 (£3,600).

Hela artikeln finns här.